By Dan Froomkin
Special to washingtonpost.com
Tuesday, April 26, 2005; 1:09 PM
In a campaign, all that matters is getting 51 percent of the vote. But governing is a different story. Governing with only 51 percent of the people behind you is hard. And governing with less than that is even harder. So the White House must be watching with some concern as President Bush's poll numbers continue to slide beneath the 50-50 mark-- and as Republican members of Congress are not falling in line like they used to. Poll Watch Richard Morin and Dan Balz write in The Washington Post about the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, which finds overwhelming opposition to changing the rules to make it easier for Republican leaders to win confirmation of President Bush's court nominees. "The wide-ranging survey also recorded a precipitous decline in support for the centerpiece of Bush's Social Security plan -- private or personal accounts -- despite the fact that the president and other administration officials have been stumping the country in a 60-day blitz to mobilize support. The Post-ABC poll found that a bare majority -- 51 percent -- opposed such accounts, while 45 percent supported them. "The poll also registered drops in key Bush performance ratings, growing pessimism about the economy and continuing concern about U.S. involvement in Iraq." In fact, Bush's approval rating is now at 47 percent, down three points from last month and tying his all-time low in The Post poll. "Taken together, the findings suggest that Bush is off to a difficult start in his second term, with Democrats far less willing to accommodate him and his agenda than his reelection victory last November may have foreshadowed. Beyond that, the survey highlights the divisions within the Republican Party, whether that involves Bush's signature Social Security proposal or the intersection of religion and politics that has become a defining characteristic of today's GOP." Here are the complete poll results . And here's a graphic showing Bush's approval rating over time. Losing Some of His Own Ronald Brownstein writes in the Los Angeles Times: "Conflicts are multiplying between congressional Republican moderates and the White House as President Bush pursues his aggressively conservative second-term agenda. "The unexpected resistance to Bush's nomination of John R. Bolton as U.N. ambassador from several Senate Republicans marks the latest, and potentially most intense, clash. But battles over Social Security, Bush's budget proposal and ending the filibuster for judicial nominations also are raising tensions inside the party." Brownstein writes that the White House position is that the recent discord reflects the issues Bush is pushing, rather than diminishing presidential clout. He also writes that some conservatives are saying the White House should confront the dissenting voices more forcefully. Behind the Bolton Battle The Washington Post's Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright analyze the controversy over John R. Bolton's nomination as United Nations ambassador and conclude that "the first big battle of President Bush's second term also reflects long-standing tensions among Republicans over the thrust of U.S. foreign policy. "Allegations that Bolton has been abrasive have become a metaphor for the broader problem of the United States' image abroad, with Republicans who favor a less confrontational and unilateral approach seeing an opportunity to press their point of view." Meanwhile, Bill Sammon writes in the Washington Times: "The White House is shifting debate away from John R. Bolton, President Bush's embattled nominee to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and toward the scandal-plagued U.N. itself. " 'We are going to make the case from here on out that this is about reform -- or more of the same -- at the U.N.,' a senior administration official told The Washington Times." Karl Rove Watch Judy Keen writes in USA Today that in an hour-long interview with Karl Rove, Bush's chief political strategist showed no signs of reaching out. "Karl Rove rejected a compromise with Senate Democrats Monday on long-stalled nominations for the federal judiciary and strongly defended President Bush's choice of John Bolton to be ambassador to the United Nations," she writes. Rove also said: -"Despite polls showing that Bush's push for reshaping Social Security is not gaining public support, 'people understand there's a problem' . . . . -"He expects House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, to keep his job despite ethics questions. . . . -"There was 'general knowledge within the White House' of an Education Department contract to promote Bush's No Child Left Behind education law, but officials there had no knowledge of the specifics of a subcontract with television and radio commentator Armstrong Williams to personally promote it." Here are a few audio excerpts . The Saudi Gambit Bush yesterday kissed and held hands with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia -- and went to extraordinary measures to keep the media away from a man who is not the poster child for Bush's effort to spread democracy in the Middle East. So what did Bush get for his troubles? Nothing. Michael A. Fletcher writes in The Washington Post: "President Bush and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah emerged from their meeting here Monday with no agreement that would lower gasoline prices in the near term, although Saudi Arabia reiterated plans to increase oil production capacity in coming years in an effort to meeting fast-growing world demand." Jennifer Loven writes for the Associated Press that "the White House, eager to showcase any progress, expressed hope that a previously announced Saudi plan for increasing its capacity for crude oil production by the end of the decade would help. " 'The problem in the oil market now is a perception that there is inadequate capacity,' National Security Adviser Steve Hadley said. Any reassurance that available supply will begin increasing should 'have a downward pressure on the price,' he said." Here is the transcript of a briefing by Hadley and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after the meeting. Edwin Chen writes in the Los Angeles Times: "Bush's meeting with Abdullah was perhaps his highest-profile move to show that he is working to curb oil and gasoline prices at a time when his job approval rating has been plummeting. "But by not publicly pressuring Abdullah, Bush may expose himself to criticism that he's not doing enough to tackle high gasoline prices." The Hand Holding Here's an Associated Press photo of the two leaders holding hands. Richard Leiby writes in The Washington Post: "President Bush was following an Arab custom that denotes close friendship when he walked hand in hand with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah after they exchanged greetings in Crawford, Tex., yesterday. " 'It's a sign of respect and affection -- nothing sexual whatsoever,' Saudi spokesman Nail Jubeir informed us from the scene. "It turns out that the pair previously held hands at two summits. And yesterday Bush also kissed the Saudi leader on both cheeks." Other Accommodations Loven writes for the Associated Press about the accommodations made for the Saudi prince: "Traditionally Bush holds news conferences with visiting foreign leaders, but there will be none during this visit because Abdullah rarely talks with the media. The president got around that by emerging from the building well before Abdullah's arrival and engaging in what was made to appear to be an impromptu exchange with the reporters gathered there." Here's the text of that exchange, in which Bush wasn't exactly eager to get down to business: "Q What do you expect to get out of this meeting, sir? "THE PRESIDENT: Do you like the footpath? "Q Let's talk about the meeting." Bob Kur reported on MSNBC: "One thing that stands out about President Bush's meeting with the Saudi crown prince down at the ranch in Texas is how differently it is handled, really, than for most meetings with foreign leaders. For example, TV cameras and reporters were allowed, as you can see, to watch the crown prince's arrival at the Texas ranch and the greeting that he got from the president. You can see that it was notable there for its warmth. "And then, as you'll see, the president takes the Saudi crown prince by the hand and shows off some of the spring flowers, the blue bonnets that are just outside the president's ranch office there in Crawford, Texas. Now once the two began meeting, however, the only coverage allowed was some still photographers. And so at the end, there was no chance for any questions by reporters for either of the leaders." Galveston Bound Marty Schladen writes in the Galveston Daily News: "When President Bush convenes a meeting today on the future of Social Security, a lot of people who want to be there won't be. . . . "Only about 700 will be able to attend the session at 12:30 p.m. in the University of Texas Medical Branch's Levin Hall. Local officials say that far more have expressed an interest." Schladen says tickets are being given out by Democratic County Judge Jim Yarbrough and the university, as well as by Chris Stevens, chairman of the Galveston County Republican Party. "Stevens added that the White House did not instruct him on whom to invite," Schladen writes. "Today's hour-long roundtable will consist of the president, two active county employees, a retiree, Yarbrough and an expert on Social Security. "The president will speak for about 15 minutes before the discussion takes place. Bush will take no questions from the audience or the press." Employees of Galveston County have been doing without Social Security for more than 20 years, as part of a pilot program. Kevin Moran writes in the Houston Chronicle that "opinions still are divided as to whether people fare better or worse than if they had participated throughout their working years in the federal program spawned by the Great Depression of the 1930s." The Galveston Daily News editorial board writes: "As the hometown newspaper, we're sometimes asked what we think of this plan. We're open to changes in Social Security but don't think the Galveston Plan is the best model for change." Taking DeLay Along Julie Mason writes in the Houston Chronicle: "President Bush is expected to give a high-flying boost to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, appearing with him in Galveston today and giving the embattled Sugar Land Republican a lift back to Washington on Air Force One." Mason writes that "the timing of the invitation signals the president is standing by DeLay for now." James G. Lakely and Joseph Curl write in the Washington Times: "In press coverage of today's events, the president inevitably will appear in photographs and video clips with Mr. DeLay and, if typical form holds, Mr. Bush will shower him with compliments in his opening remarks." Social Security Watch Julie Mason writes in the Houston Chronicle: "With his '60 Stops in 60 Days' Social Security sales tour wrapping up with less public support than he started with for private accounts, President Bush is looking to Congress for a face-saving bailout." Robin Toner and David E. Rosenbaum write in the New York Times: "After months of political maneuvering, presidential campaigning, advertising and ultimatums, the 20-member Senate Finance Committee plans to start grappling this week with overhauling the Social Security system." Dana Milbank writes in The Washington Post: "On the eve of the first congressional hearing on the restructuring of Social Security, Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee signaled that they will not insist that personal accounts be part of the legislation and that they will not seek further details from President Bush about his plans for the government-run retirement program." No WMD, and That's Final It was the White House's last hope for vindication. Maybe Iraq did in fact have weapons of mass destruction -- they were just all spirited away to Syria before the invasion? No dice, says the absolute final report of the Iraq Survey Group. Dana Priest writes in The Washington Post: "U.S. investigators hunting for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq have found no evidence that such material was moved to Syria for safekeeping before the war, according to a final report of the investigation released yesterday." The Calvin College Rebellion I wrote in Friday's column that Bush will be giving a commencement address next month at Calvin College, a small Christian institution in Western Michigan, highly regarded for its contributions to evangelical intellectual thought. I'm betting that most of you readers out there, like me, suspected that Calvin was picked at least in part to assure Bush a supportive audience -- as opposed to, say, what he might find at your typical Ivy League university. (The other commencement address he'll be giving will be at the U.S. Naval Academy.) But we -- and possibly the White House -- may have been wrong. On closer inspection, it turns out that Calvin College is not the bastion of the Christian Right it appeared to be. In fact, judging from my e-mail, it's a veritable hotbed of those other Christian values -- the ones that oppose war, work for social justice, and don't think much of the president at all. Professor Kenneth Pomykala, chair of Calvin College's Department of Religion (and a regular White House Briefing reader!) wrote to me that some members of the community "are unhappy with Bush's visit because we believe that Christian values require public policies that seek social justice, compassion for the disenfranchised, human rights, a commitment to peace, care and preservation of the environment, and honesty, say, from political leaders -- in short, policies opposed to the Bush agenda." Pomkala tried to help me understand where Calvin fits into the Christian spectrum: "Calvin is confessionally Reformed/Presbyterian (in other words, Calvinistic -- no surprise there, I guess), with a much more positive view of the intellect and participation in the broader culture than is characteristic of American evangelicalism, much of which is anti-intellectual (e.g. 'creation science') and escapist (e.g. the Left Behind series), not to mention morally barbaric (e.g. opposition to stem cell research; anti-gay)." Kate Bowman, the student activities coordinator at the college, e-mailed to say: "Many of us do not believe that Calvin's graduation ceremony is the proper forum for a partisan political address, particularly from such a divisive and controversial figure. . . . "Many of us believe that his actions since taking office contradict the teachings of the Gospel, and though we love President Bush as our brother as we are called to love all (even our enemies), we profoundly disagree with his appeals to Christianity to support his own political aims." Bowman reports: "There is a lively and thoughtful discussion happening on our in-house faculty listserv at the moment around the issue of Bush's visit. Currently the hot topic is how protest should be approached at this event. People want to be respectful without appearing to give a stamp of approval to the actions of the administration." And Raleigh Chadderdon, who will be one of the approximately 900 Calvin College students getting their diploma on May 21st, wrote that "the majority of graduating seniors I've talked with since have generally been disappointed, frustrated, and feeling betrayed by the school's decision to politicize our graduation. . . . "Once word was out, a significant number of students were scrambling to counteract the event, setting up dialogue over e-mail which now will hopefully take place on a public online venue, just recently started." That Web site is called Our Commencement Is Not Your Platform . And what is Professor Pomkala planning to do during Bush's speech? "As a faculty member, I'm required to attend commencement, but I plan on reading a book during the president's speech -- probably My Pet Goat." Denver Three Update Denver Post columnist Diane Carman writes: "The White House keeps insisting that the guy impersonating a Secret Service agent who tossed the so-called Denver Three out of President Bush's Social Security road show here on March 21 was a nobody, an overzealous Republican Party volunteer, a rogue vigilante bouncer. "If that's true, this guy really gets around." Carman writes about another incident, in Portsmouth, N.H., on Feb. 16: "Carol Shea-Porter and Susan Mayer had tickets and were admitted to the event staged in an airplane hangar. They even were allowed to stay through the entire show, despite the fact that they sat near the TV cameras and removed their sweaters to reveal red T-shirts that said, 'Turn Your Back on Bush.' "But when they left their seats to join the crowd on the floor as the president left the hangar, two burly guys grabbed them and gave them the bum's rush." It looks like Larry Clow wrote about this back on Feb. 23 in the Wire, an alternative weekly in New Hampshire. And in my Feb. 18 column , I noted Boston Herald columnist Peter Gelzinis's report about another person who was kicked out of that same event. Beetle Watch Carolyn Y. Johnson writes in the Boston Globe with the latest in the saga of the two former Cornell University entomologists who admiringly named three newly discovered species of slime-mold beetle after Bush, Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. The naming has "generated a torrent of hate mail from the liberal left, and touched a nerve" at the International Commission on Zoological Nomenclature, which regulates such things. " 'What is unusual is to name species after living political figures, and that is almost never done, it's considered in very poor taste,' said Edward O. Wilson, the famed Harvard biologist, who recently published a report in which he named an entire genus of ants -- 347 species -- and said he had no trouble coming up with Greek and Latinized form of descriptive words for each one." Gannon Watch Rep. Louise M. Slaughter (D-N.Y.), posting on the Daily Kos blog, has some more questions for White House press secretary Scott McClellan about the Jeff Gannon affair. From her latest letter: "We write to ask you to identify who in your office, or in the White House generally, gave Mr. James Guckert a.k.a. 'Jeff Gannon' virtually unfettered access to the White House." The Big Dinner Will Be Televised For those of you who can't make it, C-Span announces: "On Saturday, April 30, the annual White House Correspondents' Association Dinner will air live on C-SPAN starting at 9:30 p.m. EDT. Guest speakers include comedian Cedric the Entertainer and President George W. Bush. The event takes place in the Washington Hilton International Ballroom in Washington, D.C." The Wonkettes Finding the White House Correspondent Association's actual awards somewhat staid and entirely lacking in dirty words, the Wonkette blog has launched its own irreverent awards for White House correspondents. Among the categories are "most overrated" and "biggest suck-up." A White House Press Intern Unburdens Former White House press office intern Justin McLaughlin writes a letter to media blogger Jim Romenesko, describing some of his experiences with the press. "There was the Today Show producer who called me a moron, the Houston Chronicle reporter who threatened to set off a bomb because no one had called him back, the freelancer who called me 30 times a day for a measly quote for her measly spec article, the camerman who yelled at me because security wouldn't open the gate he wanted them to open, the photographer who had to be man-handled by the Secret Service because he ignored my instructions, the CNBC crew that got in trouble for moving a table in the VP's ceremonial office that I told them not to move and the small-time Pennsylvania newspaper that thought it deserved special access to Tom Ridge, etc. You get the idea." Richard Morin and Dan Balz write in The Washington Post about the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, which finds overwhelming opposition to changing the rules to make it easier for Republican leaders to win confirmation of President Bush's court nominees. "The wide-ranging survey also recorded a precipitous decline in support for the centerpiece of Bush's Social Security plan -- private or personal accounts -- despite the fact that the president and other administration officials have been stumping the country in a 60-day blitz to mobilize support. The Post-ABC poll found that a bare majority -- 51 percent -- opposed such accounts, while 45 percent supported them. "The poll also registered drops in key Bush performance ratings, growing pessimism about the economy and continuing concern about U.S. involvement in Iraq." In fact, Bush's approval rating is now at 47 percent, down three points from last month and tying his all-time low in The Post poll. "Taken together, the findings suggest that Bush is off to a difficult start in his second term, with Democrats far less willing to accommodate him and his agenda than his reelection victory last November may have foreshadowed. Beyond that, the survey highlights the divisions within the Republican Party, whether that involves Bush's signature Social Security proposal or the intersection of religion and politics that has become a defining characteristic of today's GOP." Here are the complete poll results . And here's a graphic showing Bush's approval rating over time.